* Instead of protecting American economic interests, Washington's tariffs, as multiple studies have shown, have driven up prices, reduced economic output and employment, and dented the overall economy, leaving the economic structural problems unaddressed and making businesses and consumers the principal prey.

* The U.S. breach of international agreements and withdrawal from global governance organizations would "accelerate the unraveling of a rules-based world trade order."

* "'America First' could again produce 'America Alone,' only more so as the fears of other countries that the United States could never again be a trustworthy friend, let alone leader, would seem confirmed."

WASHINGTON, Feb. 21 (Xinhua) -- U.S. President Donald Trump has of late added lumber and forest products to previously announced plans to impose tariffs on imported cars, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, marking the latest in a series of new protectionist moves introduced during his second term.

A sense of deja vu may be felt by many, as Trump imposed aggressive tariffs on a broad array of imports to the United States during his first term as part of his "America First" trade policy. He argued that his country had been taken advantage of in international trade deals, leading to large trade deficits and the erosion of manufacturing jobs.

But who has been paying for these tariffs? Has Washington achieved its goal of reducing trade deficits and bringing manufacturing back through tariffs? And what does the future hold for the move?

WHO'S PAYING THE PRICE?

After taking office, Trump signed an executive order on Feb. 1 to impose a 25-percent additional tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico, and a 10-percent tariff hike on imports from China. He later agreed to a 30-day pause on tariffs against Mexico and Canada.

On Feb. 10, Trump raised steel and aluminum tariffs to 25 percent, ending exemptions for Canada, Mexico, the EU and other trading partners. On Feb. 13, he instructed relevant departments to determine necessary "reciprocal tariffs" on countries that impose tariffs on U.S. products.

Instead of protecting American economic interests, Washington's tariffs, as multiple studies have shown, have driven up prices, reduced economic output and employment, and dented the overall economy, leaving the economic structural problems unaddressed and making businesses and consumers the principal prey.

"Many firms we spoke to at the time were expecting the tariffs to be temporary, so they delayed the passthrough into consumer prices," said Harvard Business School professor Alberto Cavallo in a recent paper. U.S. importers, he explained, ended up paying more for goods under tariffs and passing some of the costs on to consumers.

Pablo Fajgelbaum, a professor of economics at the University of California, Los Angeles, and his colleague Amit Khandelwal came to similar conclusions. "U.S. consumers of imported goods have borne the brunt of the tariffs through higher prices," they argued in a paper, noting that the trade war has lowered the aggregate real income of both the United States and countries it targeted.

Meanwhile, data from the U.S. Census Bureau shows that the country's global trade deficits widened to 1.07 trillion U.S. dollars in 2024, a significant surge from 870 billion dollars in 2018, when the trade war started.

The trade war diminished U.S. economic well-being by 3 percent, based on how tariffs affected firms' cash flow, said Mary Amiti, head of labor and product market studies at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, in a paper co-authored with other scholars.

When Trump launched the trade war, he vowed to bring jobs back. Again, data paints a different picture.

In the steel industry, where Trump imposed a 25-percent tariff, U.S. employment dropped to 80,200 in 2021, the lowest since the 1980s. Though the number climbed back to 83,600 in 2023, it was still below 84,100 recorded in 2018.

The tariffs will likely raise costs for industries that rely on steel and aluminum, bringing higher prices for consumers and job losses in sectors like the auto industry, according to a recent report from the Council on Foreign Relations.

Jim Farley, CEO of Ford, the second-largest U.S. automaker, said if Trump's latest 25-percent tariffs on Canada and Mexico are protracted, it "would have a huge impact on our industry with billions of dollars of industry profits wiped out and adverse effect on the U.S. jobs as well as the entire value system in our industry."

Back in 2018, the company suffered 1 billion dollars in lost profits from Trump's tariffs on metals and had to reassign workers.

The Tax Foundation, a nonprofit think tank, estimated in June 2024 that the Trump-Biden tariffs would reduce long-run U.S. GDP by 0.2 percent, the capital stock by 0.1 percent and employment by 142,000 full-time equivalent jobs.

It noted that although tariffs raise the price of foreign goods, making domestic industries more profitable, such businesses are not low-cost producers. Thus, tariffs result in less efficient production, leading to reduced economic output and lower incomes over the long run.

It also echoed 18th-century economist Adam Smith's view that tariffs should be kept as low as possible.

WHAT FUTURE HOLDS FOR U.S. PROTECTIONIST MOVE?

Under the "America First" doctrine, Trump sees organizations like the World Trade Organization (WTO) as "contrary to U.S. interests," said DW, a German public, state-owned international broadcaster.

The U.S. breach of international agreements and withdrawal from global governance organizations would "accelerate the unraveling of a rules-based world trade order," it said.

Experts said that with a narrow focus on "America First," the United States during Trump 1.0 regularly circumvented and disrupted the WTO's dispute settlement system.

This has not only undermined the interests of the countries its tariffs targeted, but also damaged the international reputation of the United States itself, according to observers.

The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a think tank, said the trade war launched by the "White House protectionists" stems from "a nationalist view of supply chains" that disrupted the global supply chain networks, casting a shadow over global economic growth and stability.

The trade policies in Trump 2.0 could amplify these effects, according to the World Economic Forum. Such measures risk heightening tensions with trade partners and triggering potential retaliatory measures, which could exacerbate further global economic fragmentation as well as inequality and slow poverty reduction in vulnerable emerging economies.

U.S. allies, including the EU and Canada, have already vowed countermeasures, warning of retaliatory tariffs on iconic U.S. industries like bourbon, jeans and motorcycles.

"'America First' could again produce 'America Alone,' only more so as the fears of other countries that the United States could never again be a trustworthy friend, let alone leader, would seem confirmed," said the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Japan's Nikkei, in coordination with the Institute of Developing Economies at the Japan External Trade Organization, has recently commissioned a study on the impact of the tariff plans announced by Trump during his presidential campaign and presented its own analysis.

According to the study, the high tariff policy is likely to end up being self-harming. The tariffs could reduce U.S. GDP by 1.1 percent by 2027, with the mining and agriculture sectors each facing a 1.5-percent decline, and could also "inhibit the growth of the global economy as a whole."

Echoing this view, Japanese daily Asahi Shimbun said, "The Trump administration is likely to ignore the International Monetary Fund's warning of a rapid slowdown in the global economy if the tariff hikes are implemented and continue turning its back on the free trade system."

No countries, including the United States, can enjoy "continued and stable prosperity on their own," it added.

(Video reporters: Peng Lijun, Peng Zhuo, Cheng Yiheng, Tan Yaoming; Video editors: Hong Ling, Zhao Xiaoqing, Zhang Nan)